Weekly Insider (Solar, Fancies, Facts & Flight of Icarus)
When opinions are not backed by facts, they’re fancies, speculations. But when they are—they’re analysis. First my fancy, then Lux’s facts.
My inkling and instinct—to which I'm trying to avoid anchoring, trying to collect supporting evidence and trying to not hold confirmation bias and ignore contrary data—was written here nearly six months ago:
Solar is to Africa as Global Crossing was to the world a decade ago. The latter helped do a great public good, connecting the world—by laying massive fiber with cheap capital provided on flawed (or fraudulent) assumptions. It was an invisible emerging market tax on speculators—that is: speculators subsidized massive infrastructure build-out. The local people in foreign lands ended up being the real winners. Solar too, at great expense to its private investors is doing a great good for the public. I predict Africa, with low or no base-load power will be the biggest beneficiary. As William Wordsworth wrote: “Pleasure is spread through the earth; In stray gifts to be claimed by whoever shall find.” Eventually, some years from now, some opportunistic entrepreneur will buy up excess panels and capacity and distribute distressed solar power assets to a distributed population (in Africa). As I’m so fond of quoting so often from Jim Surowiecki: “in greed and avarice lies the hope of progress.”
Now for the facts and the good news: the results of the most rigorous analysis I’ve ever seen on all things solar is out and in the private hands of top companies and institutional investors. Let me say this: some people playing in solar are set to be shocked, some to soar, some to get seared. The bad news: it’s not available to the public—only Lux Research clients. The worse news: I’ve been bound by secrecy from sharing it. The best I can do is share rare breadcrumb leaks left by the analysts in the press.
Lux Research’s Solar team was quoted just yesterday, in one investment publications, “The U.S. market is under pressure, though, as the industry frets over whether key federal tax incentives will be extended beyond 2008. Many analysts say that decision might have to wait until the new president takes office in January. Some analysts continue to see a big drop in prices next year. [Senior Analyst] Ted Sullivan of Lux Research says he fully expects declines of 15% to 20%. He says there's just too much supply. “
Stay tuned: As soon as I can share any of their controversial and groundbreaking analysis, I will.
My inkling and instinct—to which I'm trying to avoid anchoring, trying to collect supporting evidence and trying to not hold confirmation bias and ignore contrary data—was written here nearly six months ago:
Solar is to Africa as Global Crossing was to the world a decade ago. The latter helped do a great public good, connecting the world—by laying massive fiber with cheap capital provided on flawed (or fraudulent) assumptions. It was an invisible emerging market tax on speculators—that is: speculators subsidized massive infrastructure build-out. The local people in foreign lands ended up being the real winners. Solar too, at great expense to its private investors is doing a great good for the public. I predict Africa, with low or no base-load power will be the biggest beneficiary. As William Wordsworth wrote: “Pleasure is spread through the earth; In stray gifts to be claimed by whoever shall find.” Eventually, some years from now, some opportunistic entrepreneur will buy up excess panels and capacity and distribute distressed solar power assets to a distributed population (in Africa). As I’m so fond of quoting so often from Jim Surowiecki: “in greed and avarice lies the hope of progress.”
Now for the facts and the good news: the results of the most rigorous analysis I’ve ever seen on all things solar is out and in the private hands of top companies and institutional investors. Let me say this: some people playing in solar are set to be shocked, some to soar, some to get seared. The bad news: it’s not available to the public—only Lux Research clients. The worse news: I’ve been bound by secrecy from sharing it. The best I can do is share rare breadcrumb leaks left by the analysts in the press.
Lux Research’s Solar team was quoted just yesterday, in one investment publications, “The U.S. market is under pressure, though, as the industry frets over whether key federal tax incentives will be extended beyond 2008. Many analysts say that decision might have to wait until the new president takes office in January. Some analysts continue to see a big drop in prices next year. [Senior Analyst] Ted Sullivan of Lux Research says he fully expects declines of 15% to 20%. He says there's just too much supply. “
Stay tuned: As soon as I can share any of their controversial and groundbreaking analysis, I will.
posted by Josh Wolfe at
10:00 AM
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